Talk:The Dusk's Four Revisited (2016)/@comment-26229189-20160121181351/@comment-118.100.91.216-20160121183153

It totally depends on luck, there's no way to tell since it's a zero sum game. Having one drop (or not drop) does not affect the chances of the other runs.

I had nothing to do, so I unlocked both Quans since I already had them at +1 from last time. I was quite lucky with the drops, so it was about 30% for me. Did about 35 runs total, with the present box copies from earlier and this rerun, unlocked them both.

But I cleared 4* the full 15 times and only one I-Ling dropped, so it'd be 6.7%,

To summarise, the sample size each player does individually is too small to get an accurate reading, but on average (the non-Gauntlet events) I'd reckon the drop rate is about 15%.

It's entirely possible to get no drops at all in 10 runs. Assuming 15% drop rate, there's a 19.7% chance of not getting a single drop in 10 runs.

If you already have the index entries, I'd say skip farming I-Ling if it's frustrating, because Golden I-Ling is useless and there are so many Thunder boosters now Evil I-Ling is obsolete.